Pro-Am 1.6 Finals Predictions

BY Andrew Miesner / January 1, 2009

Tonight, the first CGS 1.6 Pro-Am Season comes to a close with CompLexity taking on x3o (formally known as Paragon of Virtue’s CS 1.6 team) at 10:30 eastern time.  CGS Radio, formally known as CGS Live, will be broadcasting the match tonight.  To add to the excitement, though, I’ve decided to take my ‘expert’ analysis of the match.  I’m going to look at past matches for both teams and against each other.  I’ll look at map and possible strategies the teams may use to weaken their opponents and minimize their strengths.  Oh, fine, and a prediction.

Before we get into the nitty-gritty analysis of each team, the map, and whatever else comes to mind, let’s talk about the format for this match.  CGS kept true to the 1.6 round time, rounds played and start money.  This is – for those unfamiliar – two minute round time, fifteen rounds per half and $800 to start; the traditional CEVO rules.  The championship match between CompLexity and x3o is a best of three, with CompLexity picking one of the maps and x3o picking one.  CEVO officials pick the last map.

 

The upper bracket winners, CompLexity, have looked dominant in 1.6.  They brushed most of the competition aside in ProAm, winning all but their last two matches by at least a nine point differential.  However, Green Berets were very close to beating CompLexity, losing in overtime and Team to Beat nearly took them down on de_train in the upper bracket finals.  CompLexity has held on though and they are two matches away from a perfect season.

With their selection, CompLexity could look a number of different areas.  Do they want to improve their own strengths, such as fRoD’s AWPing ability or their stronger maps, or do they want to surprise us with a selection, keeping x3o guessing? 

Dust2 has not been CompLexity’s map recently, which can be attributed by the departure of zet.  Zet gave CompLexity another level of aggression.  They used to use that aggression to disrupt their opponent – even on the Counter Terrorist side – and then took advantage among the opponents confusion.  CompLexity will avoid selecting dust2, but x3o could select it.

Inferno has been CompLexity’s map recently and, upon first look, that could be the map they go with.  X3o also didn’t play both their de_inferno season matches, but did win their playoff match there.  However, x3o is likely practicing inferno, expecting coL to select that. They could go with another map they have played recently quite a lot in Source, Tuscan.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see CompLexity pull out something like Tuscan or Russka in an attempt to throw x3o off.

After taking a forfeit loss to start the playoffs, x3o pounded their way through the lower bracket, working their way to the championship match.  They were guessed by many to be the team that could take CompLexity down and I have agreed all along as well; x3o has the best chance.  They did beat CompLexity in the CEVO P season and have the chance again.

With their selection, I bet x3o looks at CompLexity’s weakness, de_dust2.  They could, however, go with a map like de_tuscan or maybe even de_train.  I expect CompLexity hasn’t played much de_tuscan for 1.6 recently, as they’ve had a number of matches on that map for Source in the past two weeks.  They’ll avoid de_inferno, but CompLexity could easily pick it.

CEVO Selection

The final map is selected by CEVO.  They will go with something balanced among the two teams.  This means that if CompLexity and x3o don’t pick inferno and dust2, don’t expect CEVO to pick that map as the final one.  I think de_train or de_tuscan will be their selection.

Map selection: de_train, de_tuscan

For this next section, I’m going to take guesses on their map selections.  Here, I will predict the match and give insight on what CompLexity and x3o should do to win on the stated map.  It may not be accurate, so I have provided a “what if” section.

De_Russka(CompLexity’s Selection)

Knowing that x3o has practiced their butts off on inferno, CompLexity decides to pick Russka as their map of choice.  Russka hasn’t been used all season and is much different than what x3o has played on recently.  With extra practice, CompLexity can take this map.  Their key players will be Warden and Hanes, who have performed well recently.  Russka’s tight corners and corridors are where a player like Hanes can and likely will shine.

To combat them, x3o will need to isolate fRoD and keep players like Rambo and Hanes from getting on.  Rambo recently has been performing rather poorly (in both games) and having your leader affected in game could be what x3o needs to overcome CompLexity.  Hanes will be crucial in this matchup for CompLexity, so throwing him off and getting him off his game could help them immensely.  For x3o, I think th0mz could have a good match here.

CompLexity may chose de_inferno, but I can’t see them taking the risk.  x3o has seen their strategies and I expect CompLexity to try and mix it up by bringing in a map that’s relatively fresh for both teams.  Regardless, CompLexity should take the first game.  If they don’t, I think x3o will win the championship.

CompLexity wins:  16-11

Key Players: Warden, Hanes, th0mz

De_Dust2 (x3o’s Selection)

It would be surprising to see x3o select anything but de_dust2.  They know CompLexity is weak on this map and they are solid here.  CompLexity knows this, too, but I still can’t see it being enough.

For x3o, I think their entire team will be important here.  AWPs will need to be on, keeping CompLexity money situation poor on the Counter Terrorist side.  If they can continue to hit them hard each round, fRoD will never be able to use an AWP to take over middle.  CompLexity will have to rely on their rifles; not something you want in an open map like dust2.  Rotations will – as always with dust2 – be crucial.

CompLexity will need fRoD to play well and another member or two.  Storm could become important here, as well as Rambo.  Rambo or Storm has been playing the B site, with fRoD in support, so whoever is alone for CompLexity in B will be important.  CompLexity should also pick up their level of aggression here.  Random pushes long, middle, or up and through tunnels could be disastrous to x3o.  In the end, though, I can’t see coL winning this map; x3o is just too good here.

x3o wins: 16-8

Key Players: fRoD, Rambo, Storm All of x3o

De_Train (CEVO Selection)

CompLexity and x3o both aren’t sure shots on this map.  FRoD is definitely a major consideration here.  If he can dominate the inner site, x3o could be in trouble.  However, CompLexity did struggle in the upper bracket match against Team to Beat.

x3o dominated their opponent, STG, on train.  They will put up a fight against CompLexity.  I think, if we should get to the final match, it will come down to perseverance and who is on during the match.  If fRoD and Hanes aren’t doing anything, this will be x3o’s and they will steal the Championship.  Otherwise, CompLexity will take this home.

I spent a few minutes thinking about who will win this match.  CompLexity and x3o both have reasons why they could – and should – win this final game.  Whoever wins, it will be close; 16-12 is the largest point differential I see.  I chose CompLexity for two reasons.  One, they lost the CGS Source ProAm playoffs and will be eager to win this one, and, two, x3o may be a bit rusty on this map since Team to Beat forfeited instead of playing the map.

CompLexity wins: 16-14

Key Players: fRoD, Hanes, hero, NineSpot

This gives the match to CompLexity, 2-1.  What are your predictions?  Hope you enjoyed the preview and I’ll be recapping this in my WiR tomorrow!